By: Robert J Fischer with the Robert J Fischer Team at Keller Williams Realty
Traditional housing data often reflects what happened weeks or even months ago. By the time many official statistics are published, the market may already be shifting. Because the Robert J. Fischer Team works daily with lenders, inspectors, title companies, builders, developers, buyers, and sellers across Central Texas, we often see early signals in the market before they appear in traditional housing reports.
Based on conversations with professionals across the real estate ecosystem, the microdata we are seeing suggests residential real estate activity across the Austin metro and Central Texas area is beginning to pick up again.
To help provide a clearer picture of what is happening on the ground, we are launching the Austin Metro Real Estate Microdata Report, which highlights real-time insights from professionals actively working across the housing market.
Below are several early signals we are seeing as we move further into 2026.
Key Data Signals From This Month
- Mortgage applications increasing
- Inspection activity rising
- Multiple offers returning in some neighborhoods
- Builder inventory still working through supply
Residential Market Activity Appears to Be Increasing
Across several sectors connected to residential real estate, professionals are reporting increased activity.
- Several industry partners have recently indicated that buyer engagement is rising.
- Mortgage lenders are seeing increased loan application activity.
- Home inspection companies report busier schedules.
- Title companies are seeing an increase in contracts opening.
- Real estate agents are seeing increased showings and buyer inquiries.
Joey O’Brien of Inspect It Austin, one of the larger and more established inspection companies in the region, also reports that inspection activity is increasing. In 2024 the company completed 4,979 inspections with a team of 11 inspectors. In 2025 their total inspection volume declined by approximately 640 inspections while still operating with the same number of inspectors.
However, February of 2026 marked their busiest February in the past four years, indicating a noticeable increase in homes going under contract. Joey reports that inspections are increasing across multiple price ranges, including a rise in higher-end properties above $5 million. They are also beginning to see more commercial inspections as well, though much of that activity currently appears to be coming from owner-users purchasing properties for their own businesses rather than purely investor-driven transactions. Inspection trends are often one of the earliest indicators of housing market activity because inspections typically occur shortly after a home goes under contract, making them an important real-time signal of changes in buyer demand representing both financed buyers and cash buyers.
Lisa Beard with Independence Title also reports that contract activity is increasing as more transactions move forward. These types of indicators are often among the earliest signals of renewed housing activity, as inspections and title work occur shortly after buyers go under contract.
Competitive Offers Beginning to Reappear in Some Areas
According to Carson Vaughn of Guild Mortgage, some parts of the Austin market, particularly central and south Austin, are beginning to see competitive offer situations again.
In recent observations, Carson reported that eight different groups of buyers across varying price points—from roughly $400,000 up to $2 million—were competing in offer situations. Many of those buyers submitted offers within $5,000 of the list price, and only about half were successful in securing the home. In some cases, properties even received offers above list price.
These competitive situations are not yet the norm across the entire market, but they are beginning to reappear in certain neighborhoods and price ranges. Agents are also observing that the homes that are selling quickly tend to share several key characteristics. The properties that move the fastest are typically priced correctly for the market, have the appropriate upgrades for the neighborhood, are staged well, and are marketed effectively. If one of those elements is missing, the other areas generally need to be even stronger in order for the home to sell quickly.
Historically, housing activity often begins in the central Austin market before expanding outward into surrounding communities such as Round Rock, Georgetown, Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Hutto, and other suburbs throughout the metro.
Why Buyer Activity May Be Returning
Several factors appear to be contributing to renewed buyer interest.
First, there appears to be pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines since the market slowdown that began in 2023.
Second, mortgage rates have improved compared to their peak levels. While rates remain higher than during the pandemic boom years, many buyers are now seeing interest rates closer to the 6 percent range, and in some loan scenarios even into the mid to high 5 percent range depending on the loan program.
Carson Vaughn also reports that Austin is currently seeing significantly greater activity in mortgage applications. He noted that the real estate market and mortgage activity peaked around May of 2022, following the dramatic housing boom Austin experienced between 2019 and 2022. After that peak, Austin also experienced one of the most significant corrections in the country.
According to Carson, the early data now supports that the market may be rebounding. For the first time since the summer of 2022, some areas are again seeing multiple-offer activity. He also reports increased buyer demand, higher sold-price-to-list-price ratios, and fewer days on market in certain segments of the market.
Mortgage rates temporarily averaged in the high 5 percent range last week, representing nearly a four-year low.
Finally, Central Texas continues to attract new residents. While migration is not occurring at the same pace seen during the pandemic surge, the region continues to attract new employees and companies relocating to the area.
Builders Still Focused on Inventory While Watching the Market
While residential resale activity appears to be improving, builders are still approaching new construction cautiously. Over the past several years, builders have focused heavily on selling existing inventory by offering aggressive incentives such as interest rate buy-downs, paid closing costs, realtor bonuses, and additional flex cash incentives for buyers.
Builders are still working to move inventory while slowly beginning new construction starts as they monitor how the market continues to stabilize.
Cody Christianson, owner of Casa Mechanical, one of the larger AC and plumbing contractors serving builders across the state, reports that many builders remain cautious about starting large numbers of new homes, though there is some cautious optimism that activity will increase as demand strengthens. When fewer new homes are being started, resale homes can become more competitive since buyers have fewer brand-new homes to choose from.
The Austin Market in Context
Austin experienced one of the largest housing booms in the country between 2020 and 2022, with home values rising dramatically during that period. Because the market rose so quickly, it was also among the first markets to correct - shifting in May 2022 and really correcting from 2023 and through 2025. The market experienced a correction as prices adjusted after the rapid run-up during the pandemic years.
By 2025, the market largely stabilized, though some homes still required price adjustments if they were overpriced or lacked updates compared to competing listings. Local buyers needed enough upgrades (along with location) to give them a reason to move while out of town buyers had plenty of inventory to choose from so pricing, upgrades, and location mattered.
As we move into early 2026, the microdata signals we are seeing suggest the possibility that the market may now be entering a new phase of stabilization and renewed activity.
Commercial and Development Activity
While residential activity appears to be strengthening first, commercial real estate and development activity often moves more slowly because it is closely tied to lending rates and investment capital.
Chuck Glace of Chasco Construction describes the overall outlook in construction and development as cautiously optimistic. He says residential subdivision development has slowed compared to previous years. Developers are being more selective with industrial development projects. Data centers are emerging as one of the most active segments of commercial development. Infrastructure construction remains strong, particularly public road projects and expansion work connected to Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
Nick Hoch also noted that urban residential development in central areas of Austin remains active. Over the past 18 months, the market has found greater stability in labor and material pricing, which has helped developers better understand the cost structure needed to produce new housing. Combined with higher interest rates becoming the new normal, some companies and investors are beginning to move steadily back into urban development opportunities.
Other builders we spoke with, including Joe Bland of Joe Bland Construction, report seeing increasing interest in development opportunities as investors and builders begin evaluating future projects again.
Summary of What the Microdata Is Showing
Across conversations with lenders, inspectors, title companies, builders, developers, and agents, several early signals are emerging.
- Residential real estate activity appears to be increasing across parts of the Austin metro.
- Buyer demand that has been building up since the slowdown in May 2022 and may now be beginning to re-enter the market.
- Mortgage rate improvements and long-term population growth in Central Texas are also helping bring buyers back into the market.
- At the same time, new construction and development are recovering more slowly as builders and investors carefully monitor market conditions and financing costs.
- In many market cycles, residential activity tends to rebound before larger development and commercial investment activity accelerates.
Based on the microdata we are seeing across the industry, the Austin market may be entering the early stages of that transition. Local real estate agents are excited for their residential buyers and sellers and what that means for the 2026 market.
The Austin Metro Real Estate Microdata Report will be published periodically as new data becomes available.
